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Thursday, January 14, 2016

Scientific certainty

Sometimes things come to be so supported by evidence coming from all over the place that it is essentially proved. The laws of conservation, the second law of thermodynamics, the inverse square relationship of gravity, that evolution has occurred, and so on.

I look at science as a big complicated building ("edifice" is a good word in this metaphor). It might be that someday some central part of the structure will prove unsound and a major rebuild of much of the building become necessary, but as time passes this becomes less and less likely, as more and more rooms and all are added on.

The last really large "paradigm shift" I remember happening when one day all the respected Science Journals came out with plate tectonics, completely replacing what had gone before. At the time no real rebuilding of the scientific edifice was needed as the previous theory didn't actually replace anything but just was recognized as answering a lot of questions. While it is conceivable that some basic aspect of physics could be seriously wrong, we know that whatever that error must be it must be subtle, as the world seems so behaved with the laws we have. This implies that any error will be only a revision or an addition of more detail, not a huge mistake.

The reality of existence is that nothing is, or even could be to an infinite mind, absolutely certain. The set of things an infinite mind know might be infinite, but there is no way such a being could be certain it included all things.

Even the tautologies known as "mathematical proof," convincing as they are, have at least two elements of possible uncertainty. An axiom or definition used in the proof may be false or wrongly applied, and the logic may contain unseen errors.

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