Extra-terrestrial potential

From what I've learned of recent discoveries, an "RNA world"(since RNA can both carry information and catalyze reactions) under early Earth conditions is almost inevitable, and it seems a DNA world would eventually ensue via natural selection. 

Life didn't get much further than that for a couple billions of years, when eucaryotic life appeared, and then again for a couple billions more for multicellular life to appear, and since then it seems to have taken its own sweet time evolving into sentience let alone consciousness.  Indeed, it took major extinction events to shove things along.  These events therefore seem perhaps to be rare and highly unlikely steps -- steps that may make us close to unique.

Since we don't know how often worlds like the what the Earth was when life first appeared might be (mass, temperature, tectonic activity, oceans) we cannot even assume the most primitive life will be common, but that does seem likely.  Other than that the signs are that the evolution of a technological society that survives for any length of time is going to be really rare.

Of course we only have our own history to go by, and we may have been real slow-pokes and these things may happen more often than what our history might indicate.

Drinking friends

I discourage the consumption of alcohol -- any alcohol -- on the basis that there is an established association between its consumption and a variety of cancers, as well as other problems like cirrhosis.  I figure if that is the case the best course, especially here where (in spite of the wine industry's obfuscation of the resveratrol issue), is abstinence.  I have the same view of fructose loaded soft drinks and fruit juices, and all sorts of other unhealthy things.

I also think freedom is important, and the issue is not something where I would call for banning it (indeed I would vote against such measures), nor would I even disparage it when others imbibe.  It goes without comment from me (we must assume they are making an informed choice).

Alcoholism and the social and violence problems associated with it are another issue, and I do sometimes insert encouragements for moderation when I see someone plainly getting drunk.  Of course my words often get rejected, and I may even lose a friend, but there comes a time when someone who has the ability to do whatever is possible to prevent harm has a moral obligation to do so.  (Usually I don't actually say anything but instead resort to various sorts of redirection away from the bar).

This is a balancing act (between doing and saying nothing and active intervention to prevent harm).  This sort of dilemma arises all the time in all sorts of contexts, and we each have to try to think through what is the right course using objective reasoning, and then act accordingly, and not be critical if someone else reaches a different conclusion.

Trump scares me to death

I've been thinking a lot about the present American political situation, and would like to express some thoughts in as sensible and complete way as I can in a reasonably short message, although I suspect I will come under considerable abuse.

That the American political system doesn't work very well (few do) is evidenced by the two candidates who rose to the top, and I think the main reason is closed primaries.  They should have a series of primaries where all candidates are on the same list, regardless of party, and the bottom twenty percent or so are dropped and another primary is held, and repeated until someone gets a majority.  That way the extremists of both parties cannot call the agenda.

Still, the results this time have been particularly disappointing.  Mrs. Clinton demonstrated considerable incompetence with the email business, and I still don't understand, and will probably never understand, Benghazi, but clearly something went badly wrong and she and Obama were at the helm.

  

Disappointing as she is, her opponent really scares me, as I read him loud and clear as mainly an egoistic, unprincipled bigot, and the fact that he seems to appeal to so many gives me pause about the human race.

What is a bigot?  Well of course we have racism, which is a little confused as we don't clearly break the species into races.  What is more common in most countries is prejudice against minority cultures, which is partially racial (Chinese and Vietnamese, for example, are both Asian race, but there are differences one can notice).  There is a lot of prejudice in the Vietnamese population against the Chinese, partly for historical reasons but mainly just because they are a different culture and a lot of people automatically dislike those of different cultures.

Pertaining to America, Africans, Latins, Homosexuals, Muslims, and of course foreigners in general seems to be targets of a lot of prejudice -- something that Trump uses, cleverly I must admit.  But then he is a sociopath con man, so this is not surprising.  His speech, where he totally distorted the United States -- the greatest country on the earth -- into a crime-ridden, poverty-stricken, run-down cesspool, shocked me, and he got away with it -- not even his critics called him on it.  Americans must be really isolated from the rest of the world to accept that crap.  Just his excuses for not releasing his taxes and all the failed businesses he has started, which he got away from and others lost millions, say this is an accomplished con artist, but not a competent executive -- a flim-flam man.

Frankly I realize Clinton will probably win, and so the US will have a reasonably good government -- she seems fairly centrist although to keep her party happy she had to veer left for now.  Still, who knows what lies in the woodwork or that might be alleged (without proof but who needs proof when using The Big Lie) and she could lose.  I am terrified.

Free will experiments

Warning: what follows is personal experience and therefore not probative:

I would imagine I have experimented with free will over a thousand times, both while meditating and otherwise, and think it really exists, but is generally neglected (not utilized) unless there is mindful (paying attention to what our conscious mind is up to) effort.

A simple thing like ordering your big toe to move provides an example.  You can sit and think, "I want my big toe to move," and after a few moments it does.  More complicated, you can think, "Sometime in the next ten seconds I want my big toe to move." This is more problematic -- you are not exactly deciding when, but just "soon." Sure enough, soon enough it moves, but in this case without a conscious thought -- more like a general directive.

Is the first case free will?  Maybe the subconscious has already decided to move and sends the thought to the conscious as it is moving it.  Certainly, to move, the particular commands to the muscles involved do not involve anything at the conscious level (some claim the ability to actually do that, but I am skeptical).

It may be that we make too much of a demand on our ability to reason when we argue free will, since we seem to insist on proof, while for most behavioral matters just good evidence is enough to be persuasive.  It strikes me that those who absolutely insist on a completely mechanical, reductionist, mind miss the point and demand something that is not and never will be available -- proof.

At the same time, the idea of free will does contradict scientific notions about how things work in the universe and does seem to demand the introduction of "something" beyond the physical.  But maybe not -- maybe we just haven't thought it through completely and must wait for the necessary genius to come along with the appropriate insights.

In the meantime, I treat it like other things that are possible but that we cannot prove, such as that an external world exists (solipsism is wrong), that truth is unitary, that properly proved mathematics is valid, that the rules of logic apply universally.  These are things (axioms I suppose) that at the moment I have to take for granted.

First causes and how the idea of God messes up science

There is no need for a God hypothesis.  It only serves to clutter science with theology.  That a God  is possible is beyond question, but there being no need for it in a scientific view of how the universe came into being, it should be left out, just as we leave out Santa -- besides, the reason God is put in such discussions is not scientific but  emotional and often based on a desire to convert people to a religion.

Why do I say there is no need for a God hypothesis?  People seem to think the universe could not have come from nothing -- that this is impossible -- but it isn't, and we have to realize that it is only an assumption, with no logical necessity behind it.  We grow up in a world where everything that happens is thought to have a prior causation -- the police find a dead man they ask for an autopsy to see what "caused" the death.   Still, we do know that deaths do happen that go entirely unexplained, or the mortician says something about "probable" causes, meaning of course he is not sure.

I am persuaded that causality is an illusion.  We live in a world where all events are the result of the behavior of gazillion of atoms, and probabilities can be assigned to what each atom will do, and, since there are gazillions of them involved, the most likely probabilities are what almost always happens -- but not necessarily always.  The billiard balls hitting each other create overwhelming probabilities that the result will be as classical mechanics predicts, since there are so many individual atoms involved it would be eons before an exception happened.  This is called cause and effect, but that is a bit magical and the reality is probability.  We perform the same experiment a thousand times and get the same result a thousand times and conclude there is a "causal" relationship, while I would say it remains possible the next time the outcome will be different -- that inference is only a matter of finding what is most probable, not what is written in the stars.

I had to work at it but now I can envision a situation where nothing exists, no time or space.  This would not be eons and eons of nothingness, since there would be no time.  Who is to say what the probability of something happening, such as a quantum variation that sets in motion a chain of events that results in our universe?  Scenarios of this sort of thing have in fact been worked out with a good deal of rigor.

Youth and the political left and selfish voters

Young people have always tended to the left, and then as they mature their politics matures, not necessarily to the right (young right-wingers are another group who tend to be extremists) but more toward the center.

One unfortunate thing about young people and politics -- they tend to be just as greedy and "what's in it for me" as older people, and in their case that often has to do with financial assistance to go to college.  It's easy for a politician to promise free tuition or some such thing, and thereby, with such a lie, get a lot of college-age votes (who tend to know it's a lie but vote for them anyway, just in case).

This has long been identified as a problem with all democracies -- the vast majority "vote their pocketbooks" rather than what is best for the country, and even rationalize things to think that what is best for them is best for the country.  People are selfish and when you point it out they find ways to convince themselves they are good people in spite of their selfishness.

Trump's massive misinformation

"Misinformation" is, of course, a lie, but a particularly dangerous and malicious form of lie.  It is usually in the form of a degrading assertion about a person or movement that may have a kernel of truth or may be invented out of whole cloth.

The purpose is not to win an argument, and if challenged the assertion is dropped and the  challenge ignored or given some sort of hand wave.
What happens is the reader may forget the exact accusation, but is unavoidably left with a negative or uncomfortable sense about the person attacked.

This is the way Trump got the Republican nomination and it seems now this is the way he and his operatives plan to get the Presidency.  Unfortunately the internet works well for this sort of thing, although misinformation has been around a lot longer than the internet and seems to work elsewhere too.

We need to remember that because someone says some is "weak" at this or "selfish" at that or "dishonest" or whatever and either provides no evidence or only provides evidence that in no way demonstrates the accusation, what is being done is you are being manipulated.

God as a scientific matter

Whether or not there is a God is not a scientific matter, and trying to make it one is kinda useless.  All science can tell us is there is no reason to think there is one, not a shred of reason.  It's kind of like trying to use science to proves there are no unicorns.  The fact that we cannot find one doesn't prove they don't exist -- excuses can be thought up -- but it is not a  basis for belief.

The point is you can't prove a negative -- it is never possible to use science to prove something does not exist.  People who base a belief in Gods and such on the fact that there is no proof they don't exist can only be pitied, as they are obviously entrapped by their childhood indoctrination.

That doesn't mean there is nothing we can do.  Given a claimed God with this or that claimed property, such as infinite power or infinite beneficence, as we hear all the time, it is not difficult to point to things that demonstrate such claims are logically and necessarily false.  The existence of suffering is an example, and there are many others.  Here, again, all that can be offered are excuses, and this is not basis for belief. 

Police brutality and bigotry

People who become police officers very often (although of course not always) have their own set of problems with authority, are "into" uniforms and guns and night sticks and sirens and so on, and generally have an exaggerated self-righteousness (they are serving the public so how dare anyone talk back or disobey or throw them the finger)!.  Lots of them are plain racists and homophobes and bigots of other various sorts.  Vetting and training can help, but it is not widespread nor anywhere near complete enough.  

The public of course doesn't help.  For the most part they are underpaid and certainly not appreciated, and generally ignored, but this they have to expect.  It goes with the territory.  After all, they chose to become cops.

"A policeman's lot is not a happy one,"  and, "We should have thought of that before we joined the force." 

By the way, this is not a uniquely American problem.  It is the case everywhere, and in America at least demands for bribes are not normal routine.

Cliché time about aging

Cliché time:  We have no choice but to live in the present, so make the best of it.  Also, I like being older and more mature and, in fact, wiser.  We do learn as we experience life.

I had a doctor and we were sitting together going over some test results, and he kept saying, "For your age, that's normal." Sheesh!  I found another doctor who will treat me, not just blame my age.  So what if I have a problem that is common in people my age -- that does not mean I have to have it if there are things to be done. 

Right now I'm prospering.  Reflux and hay fever work together to produce a problematic cough that interferes with sleep, and the drugs that deal with these are less than optimal (one raises blood pressure and another presents threats of pneumonia and kidney problems), so I cough a lot.  No aches and pains though, and lots of stamina, and I no longer use glasses except for very small print.

One other thing -- in the old days I had to get up every day and go to work.  Now I get up when I want to (ironically even earlier than I use to -- but I don't have to).  I thought I enjoyed my work; I enjoy gardening and  puttering and the internet a lot more.

Constitutional monarchs

I find it a happy thing that some of the happiest countries in the world have constitutional monarchs connected to historic but not longer widely believed religions.  It forms a basis for the ceremonial and past cultures of their nations.  A house-broken monarch is a good thing to have, and I always find anti-monarchical types a bore.

Afterlife speculation

I like a lot of others have reasons to think that there is an afterlife, however, there is no way to show any mechanism for how this works nor any unbiased way to test the various claims.  Therefore it is just speculation.  I have no problem with this sort of thing so long as it is clearly labeled as speculation and not as a teaching.  I have to say though that I, and a lot of others, have little patience with people who have claims that have no objective basis and still people get in a huff if they are ridiculed or otherwise questioned.

Alzheimer's is not the fault of the patient

There are so many people who have done everything "right" and still get Alzheimer's (Reagan comes to mind) that I doubt much can be done to prevent it if it is in the cards.  That doesn't mean one shouldn't be active, both mentally and physically, but those who are unlucky here are not to blame for it.  I suppose maybe a small percent of cases can be prevented, but it will take medical interventions we now do not have to make a major dent.  That of course is no reason not to do all those things -- they help in all sorts of ways.

Self-selected police

I have to say I really do have a problem with the self-selection that seems unavoidable, as who wants to be a cop, who wants to be a lawyer, who wants to hold political office, and a lot of similar things.  Anyone who actually wants to be these things should automatically be disqualified.  

As I understand it, the ancient Athenians had a solution, although it wouldn't work and didn't work, maybe it might with some tweaking.  Officeholders were chosen at random (except those in charge of the waterworks, where expertise was needed), people had to bring their own lawsuits and represent themselves in court, and the police consisted of slaves who were told to do a good job and observe the law or go to the mines.  Laws were passed by the assembly of all male citizens -- not a wise idea as it lead to a series of decisions that resulted in loss of the Peloponnesian War and conquest by Sparta.  It also meant effective orators, like Pericles or Demosthenes, had inordinate and inappropriate and ultimately disastrous influence.

Thinking about death

As we age we of course think about death, as well as about dementia and loss of independence and so on.   I've had a string of illnesses within the last decade or so, and in each case have recovered, it seems, almost completely, and I find no reduction in my mental ability.  I think it's like physical exercise, you have to use your brain to keep it functioning, and learning languages is my forte so now I'm learning one -- and one that turns out to be more difficult than I expected (like other Austronesian languages it is free of Indo-European case and tense and gender and number nonsense, but the vocabulary and pronunciation are a b****).

(As English has evolved it has lost a lot of this stuff too, and replaced it with scads of prepositions and verb helpers, which leads to the possibility of unbelievably subtle distinctions -- in this context I should also mention its supply of suffixes and prefixes -- not available to Asian languages -- which is where the massive vocabulary really comes from.)  Austronesian languages are direct and succinct and verbosity is almost impossible.  So is subtlety and ambiguity.  I don't know which is better.  At least Khmer lacks the tones that complicate Vietnamese pronunciation -- tones that came from Chinese influence (contamination).

Of course if you get something like Alzheimer's, then all this comes to naught, so I hope I will be lucky.  There is such a thing as good and bad luck, and as the cliché goes, we have to play the cards we are dealt.

Being an intellectual type, I am of course by nature disorganized, but fortunately I have the money to hire a secretary, and he keeps me marvelously organized.  My word what a stress reducer that is to know where things are!

Stress

Stress is far more harmful to our health than we imagine, and, worse, its effects accumulate.  Included in the term are anger, worry, fear, irritation, disease, inflammation, dehydration, insufficient sleep, etc. -- one notices that not all the sources of stress are mental.

I am not persuaded that meditation is the only solution, nor that it necessarily works for everyone, but, at a minimum we should learn at least a little about it and try it out.  Anger management and worry management (learning to see things in many perspectives) also help, but so do things like good hygiene and getting medical help for depression and other mental problems (yes, taking medication when indicated).  Just being organized does wonders.  So of course is being active.

I have gone to some extremes now to put stress out of my life.  I live in a quiet, peaceful farm surrounded by children and animals and people eager to teach me Khmer.  I have a garden, a special meditation room (just bigger than a closet with a cot and some family pictures and a couple icons), several pets, a completely dark bedroom used for nothing but sleep, a chestful of approved medicines for anything that bothers me (aches, reflux, sneezing, etc.), a near vegetarian diet (fish and field mice and shellfish and eggs are allowed) and a spectacular view of rice fields with woodlands in the far distance.  I also have the Internet and now a huge music collection.

Still, one does not escape stress.  It rained yesterday -- tropical rain, wonderful, unbelievably heavy, warm, muddy, and a blessing to the farmers, but also a signal to some sort of ant or termite to send out their males by the uncountable billions, and now my house and all the floors and everywhere are buried in their corpses.  It will be hours before we get back to normal.  The thing to do is find it funny, not find it a chore, and to wonder at nature.  

Well, that's my two cents worth on the subject.

Fascism in America and Europe

That nations will and should form alliances is just so basic I have to completely discount the mental ability of anyone who thinks otherwise.

There is present in all countries and within all segments of every population certain segments who are bigots -- against and generally hating anything different from what they happen to be -- misogynist if male, anti-male if female; racist if any race except their own, homophobic if straight and against "breeders" if gay; always anti-foreigner and anti-immigration; extremely patriotic (actually the word is jingoist since patriotism is a noble emotion); even thinking (without knowing others) that their particular language is the most beautiful and expressive in the world.  

These are the people you find voting for demagogues like Trump and much of the Brexit support.  These are the ones who insist o their "right" to have a gun and who are homophobic and racist and anti-immigration and "true" Christians or Muslim terrorists.  In short, these are the people who carry out things like the Holocaust -- they are Fascists.  

I speak of this from a Cambodia/American, and I fear it is coming to America and Europe.  In fact I am terrified.