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Thursday, September 18, 2014

It looks like Putin is going to move Russia toward being economically isolated, "self reliant".

Of all the countries in the world Russia would probably be the best able to pull this off, but it would be bad for Russia and its people would be stuck.

I see where Putin is coming from though -- deny it or not (and all countries subject to embargo deny that there is any effect), the embargo must be biting, and he wants to be free of it.

Still, when a country adopts such a policy, the long-term effect is to gradually, and sometimes not so gradually, weaken the country's economy relative to the rest of the world.  The reason isn't hard to see -- if you can buy something cheaper elsewhere in the world, a country is better off doing so and using the money saved in other ways.

Of course almost everyone puts up trade barriers, and as such they harm themselves, but it is usually in response to special interest agitation.  Sometimes the excuse is to allow domestic industries time to get on their feet, sometimes the excuse is to protect local jobs, sometimes the excuse is to protect the local economy from better technology elsewhere.  Very often the excuse is fairness -- the other country is restricting the country's ability to sell things there.

All these excuses are really special (selfish) interest and in the end do harm.  Of course successes can be pointed to -- a given enterprise was rescued (from a destruction generally caused by bad management and unions that think they can forever get their members better wages than the value they add otherwise permits).  My thought there is that this weak firm will go on being a drain on the country's resources.

Nations are better off letting industries that can't compete internationally go, and concentrating on their unique special advantages.

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