I begin to think Russia will first set up an East Ukraine rather than emulating Hitler and using nationalism to occupy the whole country. That is good, but of course it means a hostile Ukraine (much more hostile now) will remain on its western border, so we will see.
Still, this East Ukraine, populated mostly by ethnic Russians, will be subservient, and probably quickly invite the presence of full-time Russian soldiers.
That would mean being, legally at least, an independent country, which has the small benefit of giving Russia another vote everywhere, but otherwise means nothing and can be undone any time with a simple annexation vote. There is a dollop of hypocrisy here -- Putin can pull back and say he didn't invade and didn't annex, while in fact of course he effectively did.
It is, however, now probably the best possible solution, considering the rabid Russian nationalism we are seeing. It is interesting that similar attitudes in Serbia gained them nothing -- I guess Russia is a bigger country.
Ukraine should have been left to work out its problems on its own, but Putin saw personal political advantage domestically, and went on to prove that he is without scruple or honor.
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