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Friday, November 29, 2013

Discerning real science from pseudo-science

It's hard for the layperson to distinguish real science from cleverly done pseudo-science.  Sometimes the pseudo-science puts on such a "scientific" performance, with all the right jargon and all the right credentials (that of course we can't possibly confirm) and even the right "peer review" (again impossible to confirm).

To a large extent we have to accept the authority of the scientific community.  Isolated "findings" that get ignored by the community are to be suspected, and when debunkers appear from within that community, then one feels pretty confident.

However, as we all know, "science" can be wrong (although this is less common than many would have us think).

I use a few personal tests.  First, I discount personal stories and testimony.  It is too bad that this has to be, but it has to be.  Even the most honest person can have moments of delusion, moments of "filling in" details that aren't real (psychologists have demonstrated this many times).  Also of course not everyone is honest.  Liars abound, and not just those out for personal gain.  The history of religion is filled with pious frauds where the motive for the lies and exaggerations are to save someone's soul.

Second, I discount certain kinds of physical evidence that are subject to manipulation that may not be detectable, such as footprints and lie-detector tests and of course photos.

Third, I try to apply "common sense" and a sense of probability.  If something is too good to be true, it probably is.  If something is totally awe-inspiring and wondrous, I doubt.  One-headed bicyclists mistaken for two-headed bicyclists are more common than real two-headed bicyclists.

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