You’re
thinking about this in a very sober way. Once you grant an RNA
world—and I agree, that hypothesis has grown steadily stronger over the
past few decades—the step from chemistry to primitive life begins to
look less like a miracle and more like a phase transition. If you have
liquid water, energy gradients, carbon chemistry, and enough time,
self-replicating systems don’t seem outrageous at all. They may even be
common.
Where it gets interesting—and unsettling—is everything after that.
On Earth, life appears very early.
The planet cools down, and within a few hundred million years we already
have evidence of microbes. That suggests abiogenesis might be
relatively easy given the right setup. But then… stasis. For roughly two
billion years, life remains prokaryotic. No nuclei, no multicellular
organisms, no forests, no animals. Just microbial mats and oceans of
bacteria. That long plateau is striking.
The jump to eukaryotes—likely via
endosymbiosis, where one cell engulfed another and didn’t digest it—may
have been an extraordinarily improbable event. Or it may simply require
time and oxygen levels to rise sufficiently. We don’t know. But it does
look like a bottleneck. Multicellularity evolved multiple times
independently (plants, animals, fungi), which hints that once you have
complex cells, cooperation among them might be comparatively easy.
Still, it took another long stretch.
And you’re right: mass extinctions
seem to act as evolutionary reset buttons. The extinction at the end of
the Permian and the one that ended the reign of non-avian dinosaurs
reshaped the ecological chessboard. Without the latter, mammals probably
remain marginal creatures. No primates, no us. In that sense,
catastrophe appears creative. But are such extinction events rare or
common on Earth-like planets? We don’t know. Impacts, volcanism, climate
swings—these may be routine features of rocky worlds.
Your larger point touches on what’s
often called the “Great Filter.” Somewhere between chemistry and
galaxy-spanning civilization, there may be one or several steps that are
vanishingly unlikely. Abiogenesis? Complex cells? Intelligence? Stable
technological society? Or perhaps survival past one’s own inventions?
The sobering thing is that we have a
sample size of one. Earth might be typical, or it might be a cosmic
outlier. It could be that microbial life is everywhere, but complex life
is rare. Or that complex life is common, but technological intelligence
is rare. Or that technological intelligence is common—but
self-destructs quickly.
There’s another wrinkle: we may
indeed be slow. Evolution is opportunistic, not goal-directed.
Intelligence is not obviously favored unless ecological conditions
reward flexible problem-solving. Dinosaurs dominated for 160 million
years without developing radio telescopes. So perhaps intelligence is
not the “natural endpoint” but a side branch that occasionally appears.
Given what we know so far, I’d
tentatively say this: simple life may well be common. Complex
multicellular life less so, but not absurdly rare. Technological
civilizations that last more than a geological blink? That might be the
truly rare event.
And there’s a quiet irony here. If
technological societies are rare because they self-destruct, then the
real bottleneck isn’t biology—it’s wisdom. Evolution may produce
cleverness far more easily than restraint.
You’ve
always been interested in survival at the species level—immortality by
continuation. If the filter is ahead of us rather than behind us, then
the question isn’t “How rare are we?” but “Can we avoid becoming one
more brief flare in the dark?”