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Monday, September 14, 2026

World megacities

Europe? Lagos?

Europe is actually a useful contrast, because Europe doesn't have a Tokyo-sized single metropolitan area. It has several large metros, plus one particularly interesting polycentric urban corridor.

Using the UN's 2025 urban-agglomeration figures for a reasonably consistent comparison:

Urban systemApprox. populationWhat it is
Tokyo33.4mOne dominant megacity
Lagos~12.8mFast-growing megacity
London10.4mLarge single metropolitan area
Paris9.4mLarge single metropolitan area
Rhine-Ruhr~10–12mPolycentric German urban region
Milan~6mMajor northern Italian metro
Madrid~6–7mMajor Spanish metro
São Paulo~23mHuge Brazilian metro
Mexico City~23mHuge Mexican metro

The UN's 2025 urban-agglomeration methodology, for example, gives London 10.416 million and Paris 9.382 million.

Lagos is the fascinating one

Lagos is already enormous, but it is nowhere near Tokyo yet. Depending on the boundary used, you'll encounter estimates ranging from roughly 13 million to well over 20 million. That's not necessarily disagreement about the number of people; it's largely disagreement about where Lagos ends.

And Lagos is growing extraordinarily rapidly. Unlike Tokyo, which is aging and beginning to shrink, Lagos is part of one of the world's great demographic explosions.

That's the big geographical divide:

Tokyo:
33m → slowly shrinking

Lagos:
~13–20m → rapidly growing

Paris/London:
~9–10m → mature, relatively stable metropolitan regions

São Paulo/Mexico City:
~23m → enormous mature megacities, with much slower growth than Lagos

Europe has one thing the others don't

If we broaden the concept from "a metropolitan area" to "a megalopolis", Europe becomes much more interesting.

The Rhine-Ruhr region in Germany runs roughly:

Düsseldorf → Essen → Dortmund → Duisburg → Cologne → Bonn

There isn't one dominant city. Instead, you have a dense constellation of cities, industrial towns and suburbs that have effectively grown together.

And farther west you can think of a still larger European urban network running through:

Amsterdam → Rotterdam → Antwerp → Brussels → Cologne/Rhine-Ruhr

That's sometimes described in terms of the Blue Banana, although that's a somewhat loose economic-geographical concept rather than a single continuously urbanized city.

So I'd revise the mental picture from our previous discussion:

  • Tokyo: the world's great single-core megacity.
  • Northeast US: an enormous linear megalopolis of separate major cities.
  • Rhine–Ruhr/Benelux: Europe's equivalent polycentric urban system.
  • Mexico City/São Paulo: enormous single metropolitan concentrations.
  • Lagos: the rapidly emerging African giant, whose eventual scale is much harder to predict.

And there's a wonderful irony here: Europe has some of the world's densest urban networks, but not one of the world's giant 30-million-person megacities.

Tokyo achieves roughly 35 million people in an area that feels like one coherent city, while Southern California achieves perhaps two-thirds as many people spread over an astonishingly large landscape of separate but interconnected cities.


And, of course, S. California

Exactly. Southern California belongs in this discussion, although it is another case where the word megalopolis can be more useful than city.

The urbanized area running roughly

Santa Barbara → Los Angeles → Orange County → San Diego → Tijuana

contains something like 20–25 million people, depending heavily on the boundaries you choose.

And it has a very different physical form from Tokyo.

RegionRough populationUrban form
Greater Tokyo33–37mExtremely dense, rail-oriented, enormous core
Northeast US45–50mLinear chain of major metros
Southern California20–25mVast, dispersed, multi-centered
Mexico City~23mHuge concentrated metro
São Paulo~23mHuge concentrated metro
Lagos~13–20mRapidly expanding megacity
Rhine–Ruhr/Benelux~15–25m*Polycentric European network

*Very boundary-dependent.

Southern California is particularly deceptive because Los Angeles isn't really "the city" in the way the name suggests. The Los Angeles metropolitan area contains a multitude of substantial cities—Long Beach, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Irvine, Riverside, San Bernardino, etc.—and then San Diego is another major metropolitan center farther south.

There's also a geographical barrier that makes the comparison fascinating: mountains and desert constrain the habitable corridor, while the Pacific Ocean forms the western edge. Consequently, the developed strip is enormous north-to-south but relatively constrained east-to-west.

And then there's Tijuana, which makes the region genuinely transnational. The San Diego–Tijuana urban area is one of the world's largest binational metropolitan regions.

So if we're making a list of the world's great urban regions rather than merely cities, I'd definitely put Southern California in the conversation with Tokyo, BosWash, the Pearl River Delta, the Rhine–Ruhr/Benelux system, and the São Paulo region.

The really remarkable thing is that Tokyo achieves roughly 35 million people in an area that feels like one coherent city, while Southern California achieves perhaps two-thirds as many people spread over an astonishingly large landscape of separate but interconnected cities.

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