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Thursday, November 17, 2016

Trump's effects

In all Trump will probably be good for the economy.  He will reduce environmental regulation (it is feared to the harm of the environment and an increase in global warming), increase regulations on unions (it is feared to the point they will have no ability to change exploitive situations), eliminate all sorts of consumer protection regulations and so on and on.  This will happen mostly unseen by changes in rules and in the attitude toward their enforcement, but will tend to help the economy, at least short term, so there may be some growth.

However, it also appears there will be a surge in wasteful spending, on military boondoggles and, of course, on The Wall.  A lot of bridges and such will no doubt be built, some needed, but things less visible, such as water pipes and sewage disposal systems, will continue to be pushed aside.
Then there is trade policy.  If things go according to the rhetoric, a trade war with Mexico and China is in the offing, if not the rest of the world.  What seems to be forgotten is that these countries can retaliate.  Also, of course, such a policy is tailor made to increase China's trade and other economic influence with Latin America, Africa and Asia.  If carried far enough, it could precipitate a world-wide depression.

What worries me most however is social.  That women will lose the right to an abortion seems inevitable -- not just in states that want to do so but via Federal regulation of medical practice.  That gays may lose the right to marry also seems, for similar reasons, likely, even though Trump himself has pretty much avoided the issue.   It will be done by his appointees in small steps.  Of course immigrants, even legal ones, will lose most of their rights, and will end up living under a constant shadow of the threat of challenge (even when they produce papers, this sort of disturbance will cause many employers to terminate, just to avoid attention).
  
Not just immigrants, too, but Muslims (how about Jews, Catholics, Mormons, atheists) will live in a shadow, and, of course, blacks will have it hard.  Nothing official mind you -- just selectivity in the enforcement of existing laws and their interpretation will be enough.

There is also the right to vote.  I can see identification laws applied like Florida tried to apply, designed to see to it that only whites vote.

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