China, Vietnam, and some Islands

You asked for my views of the Vietnam-China argument over some islands in the S. China Sea (usually referred to as the "East Sea" here in Vietnam).

The Chinese position is of course arbitrary, illegal (at least contrary to International conventions) and outrageous.  I think so far it has also been unbelievably stupid.

This is one case where I would assess that the population here in Vietnam is ahead of the party and government.  There always has been some anti-Chinese feeling here, but for the most part Vietnam owes much of its civilization to China and the people know it.  Also of course there are close ties between the two Communist Parties -- ties that are in peril.

The Chinese stupidity comes from alienating a friendly state overwhelmingly likely to align itself with China in almost any conceivable world event, and one with practically the same form of government and economy.  The Chinese seem to have an attitude that goes beyond arrogance in just assuming the Vietnamese in the end will Kowtow.

The thing is the Vietnamese authorities would I think almost certainly stand down if China pushes hard.  China is far more powerful and the Vietnamese government is not so stupid to risk everything over some islands and whatever economic benefit they might bring.  Instead I would expect them to negotiate and try to get a piece of the action. 

The Vietnamese have no real hope in such a situation of American assistance, at least while someone like Obama is President (consider his behavior elsewhere) and I think the odds are very great that American help in a clash with China would be of little use and for ideological reasons would probably be declined anyway.

The thing is much of the population does not see things that way, and nationalistic feelings in Vietnam have been strengthened by China's high-handedness.  This could be destabilizing in Vietnam if the government is seen as too much controlled from Beijing.  The Parties in both countries have to realize this. 

Vietnam is a successful, prosperous, popular one-party state, perhaps the only example of such except for China itself.  It just doesn't make sense to me that China would imperil this.